The Hot Springs Market Shifted This Year —

I Pulled 90 Days of Garland County Sales Data. Here's Exactly What the Market Is Doing.

Every week I talk to people who are making major financial decisions based on what they heard the market is doing. A neighbor sold their house fast last spring, so they assume things are still flying off the shelf. Or they read a national headline and figure the bottom is about to drop out. Neither picture is usually accurate — and when you're talking about your largest asset, "usually" isn't good enough.

So let me show you the actual numbers.

I compared the last 90 days of residential sales in Garland County against the same 90-day window a year ago. Here's what the data tells me.

Volume is steady — but slightly softer

This year, 258 homes closed in Garland County over the last 90 days. That's compared to 264 in the same period last year — a modest 2.7% dip in transaction volume. Not a crash, not a surge. A market that is still moving, but moving more deliberately than it was.

Prices are telling two different stories depending on what you look at

The median sale price this year came in at $220,000, down from $239,950 last year — an 8.3% decline year-over-year. That's a meaningful number and worth paying attention to. It tells me that the middle of the market, where most buyers and sellers are operating, has softened.

At the same time, the average sale price rose from $304,769 to $319,465 — up 4.8%. That's being driven by activity at the higher end. We had nine transactions close above $1 million this year, compared to six last year. The luxury and lakefront market is holding its own. It's pulling the average up even as the median comes down.

Price per square foot followed the same pattern, ticking down slightly from $165 to $163. Marginal, but consistent with the broader softening in the mid-market.

The short version: if you're buying or selling in the $150,000–$350,000 range, this is a more buyer-friendly market than it was a year ago. If you're in lakefront or luxury territory, the numbers still support strong values.

Where homes are selling — and where they're not

The $100K–$300K range continues to carry the market. That's where 132 of this year's 258 sales happened. We actually saw an increase in closings in that range compared to last year (129 then), which tells me demand in that segment is real.

The $300K–$400K range softened noticeably — 40 sales last year, only 25 this year. If your home is priced in that window, you need to be strategic. That's where I'm seeing the most friction.

The $500K–$1M range also pulled back from 35 sales to 24. Again, consistent with a market that's recalibrating, not collapsing.

Days on market: the number that doesn't lie

Last year, the median sold property closed in 86 days. This year it's 95 days — about a week and a half longer. That's a 10.5% increase in how long it takes for the right buyer to find the right home.

Meanwhile, I have 886 active listings sitting in Garland County right now with an average of 238 days on the market. That's the gap between homes that are priced and presented correctly, and homes that are just waiting and hoping.

If your listing has been sitting without serious activity, the market isn't broken — the strategy needs a second look.

Which communities are driving sales

Hot Springs city proper led all closings with 91 sales, up slightly from 88 last year. Lake Hamilton held steady at 70, same as last year. Lakeside dipped from 70 closings to 57 — that's a shift worth noting if you're selling in that district. Jessieville and Fountain Lake both ticked up modestly.

What this means for you

If you're a buyer, this is a better environment than it was a year ago. More inventory, more negotiating room, and median prices that have come down meaningfully. That said, well-priced homes in good condition are still moving — don't wait for a crash that isn't coming.

If you're a seller, the days of putting a sign in the yard and waiting for offers are behind us — at least for now. The sellers who are closing are the ones who came to market priced correctly from the start, and who invested in how the home is presented and marketed. Pricing ten or fifteen thousand dollars too high in this environment doesn't just slow you down — it costs you in negotiations later. I'd rather have that honest conversation with you upfront than watch your listing go stale.

I've been working this market long enough to know that the data is just the starting point. What matters is what the numbers mean for your specific property, your specific goal, and your specific timeline. That's where local knowledge makes the difference.

Let's talk.

If you're thinking about buying or selling in the Hot Springs area, I'd be glad to walk through what the market looks like for your situation specifically. Call or text me at (501) 655-6247.

Jeff Kennedy | Hot Springs 1st Choice Realty Serving Garland County and the Lake Hamilton area